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The ACC struggled in nonleague competition for the second straight year last season, sending just five teams to the NCAA Tournament, and the league was at least able to save face with a winning record thanks to Miami’s surprise Final Four appearance. Recruiting has fallen, with just 16 of the top 100 high school recruits making it to the conference, and five of those will be languishing on rosters that could be almost total waste. Fewer than half the programs in the conference have coaches with more than three years of tenure, including Florida State’s soon-to-be 75-year-old Leonard Hamilton. The ACC’s national presence is on the wane, and teams need to be ready before nondivisional play begins in early November to change things up. That’s near-impossible for multiple programs involving massive roster overhauls, but overall the conference does return plenty of talent and does well in the transfer portal; as many as seven programs could potentially secure a March tournament berth, including at least one national title contender at Duke.
By the way, the block/charge rule change could make college basketball very frustrating this season. Previously, the defensive player had to be in position before the offensive player left the ground to charge. Now, the defender must be in position before the offensive player puts his foot on the ground and jumps. While the change has been welcomed by many, in practice, it means that all any offensive player has to do is change direction directly with their feet and bump into a sliding defender, and they get an automatic foul. This new rule has the potential to make defense impossible and college basketball almost impossible to watch.
*For statistical reference, last season the NCAA ranked 352 Division I teams in all statistical categories.
Tyrese Proctor will handle the ball more often as a sophomore.
duke blue devils
2022-2023: ACC 27-9, 14-6 (tied for third); lost to Tennessee in NCAA 32
Gone: Darrick Whitehead (8.3 ppg, 42.9 percent from 3-point range) and Derek Lively (5.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.4 rpg) were selected in the first round of the NBA draft
Grads take an extra year: Ryan Young
Major additions: 6-8 top 20 freshman Sean Stewart, 6-2 top 20 freshman Jared McCain, 6-5 top 20 freshman Caleb Foster, 6-8 top 20 freshman TJ Power
Current projections: No. 1 in ACC; Final Four
High expectations make Jon Scheyer’s first season as head coach a second-round NCAA Tournament loss seem like a disappointing end, though the Blue Devils’ loss against a uniquely athletic Tennessee team is understandable given the abundance of freshmen filling big roles and the absence of Mark Mitchell (one of the players most likely to be comfortable with his physicality). What’s more, last season was a respectable start to Scheyer’s tenure, with a roster built almost entirely from the ground up, and Scheyer received a surprising gift after the season, with four starters and five of the team’s top six scorers opting back.
While last year’s Blue Devils included what was once considered a top-three recruit in last year’s class, this year’s roster will include a total of eight current or former top-25 recruits, more than any other team in the country. One of the most impressive aspects of Scheyer’s first team was his ability to quickly organize the defense of a team dominated by freshmen, and the Blue Devils finished the season 27th in defensive field goal percentage and 24th in 3-pointers. Ranked fifth in defensive percentage and rebounding rate. While the rim protection provided by Dereck Lively will be missed, it’s not really necessary to win in college basketball or excel on defense right now. Graduate returning Ryan Young (6.4 points and 5.5 rebounds per game on 17.7 points per game on 68.5 percent shooting) has actually been more successful as a rebounder and interior scorer than Lively for most of the season, while freshman Sean Stewart has the athleticism and instincts to provide some shot-blocking on the floor, while the 6-foot-11 Kyle Filipowski (15.1 points per game, 8. 9 rebounds) should be tougher on the job as a sophomore. With Stewart and TJ Power joining Filipowski, the 6-foot-8 Mitchell (9.1 points, 4.5 rebounds and 35.2 percent shooting from 3-point range) and the 6-foot-10 Young, the Blue Devils still have enough size to compete inside.
Offensively, the return of Jeremy Roach (13.6 points per game) as a senior will be critical for efficiency, but Tyrese Proctor is the player most likely to improve significantly and play alongside him on offense. A pioneer a year ago, Proctor has started to gain a foothold in the team’s past nine games, averaging 10.2 points per game, shooting 39.5 percent from 3-point range, dishing out 4.2 assists, and averaging just 1.1 turnovers per game. Beyond that, offensive efficiency is the area where Filipowski is most likely to improve as a sophomore, and the addition of two other five-star guards and TJ Power’s high-end four should help the team improve on last year’s offensive numbers (the Blue Devils were 141st in field goal percentage and 207th in 3-point percentage, though they did take care of the basketball pretty well with a two-point guard backcourt (75th in assist-to-turnover ratio).
With a roster filled with potential future NBA talent and more overall experience than it did a year ago, expectations for Jon Sheyer’s second year can only be higher. Having five players who actually play together will help, and overall, with just one year to go before the retirement of the most successful coach in Duke basketball history, everything looks very promising for the future of Duke basketball.
Reece Beekman’s speed will be more apparent than ever in his fifth year.
virginia cavaliers
2022-2023: ACC 25-8, 15-5 (tied for first place); lost to Furman in NCAA Round of 64
Gone: Kihei Clark (10.7 points per game, 5.4 points per game, 35.2 percent from three), Arman Franklin (12.4 points per game, 4.1 rebounds, 37.3 percent from three), Jaden Gardner (12.0 points per game, 5.8 rebounds) and Ben Vander Plath (7.4 points per game, 4.6 rebounds) graduated; Kadin Shedrik Shedrick (6.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.4 rpg) to Texas, Isaac Traudt to Creighton, Francisco Caffaro to Santa Clara
Graduates take an extra year: Reese Beekman
Major additions: 6-8 Merrimack to Jordan Minow (17.4 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.4 points, 2.6 rpg), 6-0 Georgetown to Dante Harris (11.9 ppg, 4.1 apg, 1.5 rpg), 6-5 redshirt Leon Bond (top 70 rookie), 6-6 St. Thomas to Andrew Lord (17.1 apg) points, 3.6 assists, 1.7 points), 6-9 Oklahoma State transfer Jacob Groves (6.8 points per game, 38.1 percent threes), 6-3 top 60 rookie Elijah Gertrude, 6-9 6-9 top 70 rookie Blake Buchanan
Current prediction: No. 2 in ACC; Elite Eight
The University of Virginia suffered another major upset in the NCAA Tournament that ended last season, for the third time in their past four tournament appearances (the other trip ended with a national title). There was at least some identifiable reason this time around, as an injury to big man Ben Vander Plas in March limited Tony Bennett’s offensive options and forced the team back into a less efficient, more fatigued move-and-block offense. Offseason personnel changes should help, and Virginia’s status in the ACC is unquestionable after finishing first or second in the league eight times over the past decade.
Virginia might have faced another trip to the NIT if Reese Beekman hadn’t decided to take advantage of his COVID-19 year, but his return guaranteed some much-needed continuity. Beekman (9.5 ppg, 5.3 assists, 1.8 ppg, 35.1 percent from 3-point range) has been one of the best perimeter defenders in college basketball for years, and he seems to finally understand just how efficient he can be off the dribble during his third-team ACC selection. With the ball in his hands more and more confidence in his jump shot, he should move up this list in Year 5. Still, even with Beekman in place, the departure of Kihei Clark would lead to a major shift in Virginia’s backfield. The addition of Dante Harris means the team still has the efficiency advantage of an offense with two point guards, even though Harris shot very poorly at Georgetown (37.5 percent from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point range). Even if some of those shooting difficulties are due to poor offensive design, Harris won’t be as efficient as Clark. Clarke’s size and limited athleticism, on the other hand, allow him to fend off teams with length, athleticism and disciplined defenses, which can sometimes cause offenses to struggle. Harris is bigger and faster, which can help the team avoid scoring in the long run.
The other top addition to Tony Bennett will be Jordan Minor, who was the Northeastern Conference’s Partner of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year last season. At 6-8, his 2.6 blocks per game aren’t likely to be consistent in the ACC, but he’ll provide some rim protection, he’s a better rebounder than Kadin Sheldrick, he’s mobile enough to get back to the paint quicker after a screen, and he offers a Jayden Gardner-like interior scoring threat. Minor will allow the team to have five scoring threats on the floor for most of each game, while the other four positions are full of perimeter threats. Throw in two potential rising second-year stars in Ryan Dunn and Andrew Rhode with great length on the wing, and an already respected 3-point shooter in Isaac McNeely (6.7 points per game on 39.2 percent from beyond the arc), and this should be Tony Bennett’s best offense since a championship team (UVA joins Beekman and Clark in assist-to-turnover ratio No. 1, but struggled a bit with 161st in field goal percentage and 130th in field goal percentage). The suffocating defense that now leads the cards, led by Beekman, Harris, Dunn and Minor, can actually improve too, as Gardner and Vanderplatz are less than ideal (51st in field goal percentage and 205th in 3-point defense last season).
A three-game first-round loss may have shaken confidence in Tony Bennett’s ability to play nationally, but he’s the only ACC coach with a national title, which is why the team suffered a major upset at the top of the list. Offense has been the limiting factor in team failure, and there are multiple reasons to believe that issue has been addressed this season. Virginia should get a familiar opportunity in March, and Tony Bennett is, and always has been, capable of running an offense there.
RJ Davis is really the only player who has improved under Hubert Davis.
North Carolina Tar Heels
2022-2023: ACC 20-13, 11-9 (seventh); infamously rejected NIT bid
Starting off: Leaky Black (7.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.3 rpg) and Pete Nance (10.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg) graduate; Caleb Love (16.7 ppg) transfers to Arizona, Puff Johnson transfers to Penn State, DeMarco Dunn transfers to Penn State, Dontres Styles transfers to Georgetown, Ty Le Nicole transfers to Virginia Tech, Justin McCoy transfers to University of Hawaii, Will Shaffer transfers to UAB
Graduates take an extra year: Armando Bacot
Key additions: 6-5 Notre Dame transfer Cormac Ryan (12.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 34.4 percent from three), 6-9 Louisville transfer Jalin Withers (8.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 41.7 percent from three), 6-7 Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram (10.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.7 pts), 6-5 Browns to Paxon Wasick (14.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.2 apg, 38.0 3P%), 6-1 reclassified 2024 top-10 rookie Elliott Cado, 6-9 top-60 rookie Zaden High School
Current prediction: No. 3 in ACC; Sweet Sixteen
The second year under Hubert Davis didn’t go as smoothly as the first, and the team notoriously turned down an NIT offer (a decision that makes more sense now, since it’s clear most players want to…
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