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Super Bowl 57 is full of intriguing storylines, matchups and unknowns, but arguably the biggest battle will be between the two quarterbacks as they make a last-ditch effort for the Lombardi Trophy.
On the one hand, we have 2022 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes, already one of the best quarterbacks in league history. On the other hand, we have Jalen Hurts, who just came off one of the best seasons of his career and is looking to write another chapter for an underdog story that already has plenty of twists and turns.
To figure out who has the edge — at least on paper — we’ll look at different statistical categories and situations. Just like any championship fight, we will play 12 rounds to crown the champion.
Round 1: Run-Pass Option (RPO)
One thing you’re sure to see on the field Sunday is RPO (run-pass option) play at full throttle. No quarterback ran for more RPO this season than Patrick Mahomes, who did it with 254 snaps. Injury followed with 253 points.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts (RPO; 2021-2022)
Metric system | Mahomes | rank | pain | rank |
RPO rate | 20.2% | fourth place | 21.8% | second place |
EPA per game | 0.001 | No.9 | 0.227 | second place |
+EPA% | 41.3% | No. 19 | 51.4% | third place |
PFF level | 69.5 | 13th | 66.1 | number 17 |
Hertz has an edge in almost all of those areas, as the threat he poses as a runner is clearly a factor in creating space for the Eagles.
As a team, the Eagles produced 0.227 expected points added (EPA) per game on RPO and produced a positive EPA on 51.4 percent of those games, among the top five in the NFL. Considering the number of RPOs the Eagles have had this season, you can easily say they are the best RPO team in the NFL this year.
EDGE: JALEN HURTS
Round 2: Quick Game
Fans may have heard the term “quick game” used on the radio, but it’s essentially the short course concept, paired with short dropbacks, to answer multiple reports.
For the quick play to work, the quarterback has to read the defense and decide where to take the ball, often before the ball is even tackled.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts (quick match; 2021-2022)
Metric system | Mahomes | rank | pain | rank |
try | 135 | second place | 92 | 12th |
PFF level | 62.4 | 24th | 65.0 | 21st |
yards per attempt | 6.1 | number 11 | 5.7 | day 17 |
EPA per game | 0.009 | 21st | 0.144 | day 6 |
Neither Hurts nor Mahomes are particularly good in these situations, as both signal-callers rank in the bottom half of the league in PFF ratings in these games.
Although reading defenses and getting the ball out quickly is a big strength of Mahomes’ game, the Eagles have been slightly more efficient this season.
Advantage: Jalen is injured
Round 3: Designed QB Runs
This category favors the Herts and Philadelphia in every way — the Eagles are the most efficient team in the league in that division, despite having the highest offensive rating in the league.
The most notable of these situations are third, fourth and first, where the Eagles took advantage of a new rule change to make the QB go first almost automatically.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts (quarterback running designed; 2021-2022)
Metric system | Mahomes | rank | pain | rank |
try | 15 | 31st session | 148 | First |
EPA per game | -0.098 | 13th | 0.086 | First |
+EPA% | 40.3% | 15th | 49.2% | First |
PFF leveling | 48.5 | No. 34 | 78.5 | 6th |
Advantage: Jalen is injured
Round 4: When the QB is forced out of his spot
Forcing the quarterback out of his position is often the focus of NFL pass rushers, as it affects the quarterback’s timing, tempo and skill required to pass the ball when and where it is needed. Often, effectiveness is limited to pocket passers who can’t play Mahomes and Hurts outside the structure.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts (passing under pressure; 2021-2022)
Metric system | Mahomes | rank | pain | rank |
PFF Pass Grade | 76.8 | second place | 31.5 | 36 days |
PFF leveling | 90.2 | 5 days | 79.5 | number 11 |
yards per attempt | 6.9 | 5 days | 3.8 | No. 33 |
EPA per game | 0.106 | second place | -0.363 | 21st |
Mahomes’ unique ability to escape any platform with multiple arm angles makes forcing him out of his position almost a moot point. His effectiveness in this area may be altered by an ankle injury, but over the course of his season — and, frankly, his career — Mahomes may have been the best mobile player we’ve seen. .
For a mobile QB like Hurts, those results have some interesting consequences. He’s clearly an effective scrambler, but his mobility doesn’t translate to throwing the ball on the move. If the Chiefs can find a way to force Hertz out of his position and contain him enough to force him to throw, it could prove to be an effective strategy to limit his effectiveness.
Advantage: Patrick Mahomes
Round 5: Stable Metrics
Stable indicators are statistics that do not show extreme volatility from year to year and correlate to future success in the position.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts (stable indicators; 2021-2022)
Metric system | Mahomes | rank | pain | rank |
clean pocket | 93.1 | second place | 91.1 | 6th |
standard drop | 87.4 | fourth place | 87.7 | third place |
first and second down | 86.8 | fourth place | 80.6 | 6th |
no play action | 85.1 | third place | 81.8 | fourth place |
pass the ball to or over the baseline for success | 93.9 | third place | 92.1 | fourth place |
Mahomes and Hurts finished in the top six in each of these categories, a very good sign of their continued success.
In Mahomes’ case, this seems obvious. But for Hurts, who will be eligible for an extension this offseason, the numbers provide a compelling argument that his high-level game will continue.
Since Mahomes ranks higher in four of those five categories, though, he has the edge here.
Advantage: Patrick Mahomes
Round 6: Deep Throw
A deep pass is a downfield pass of 20 or more yards in the air. It’s a shaky stat, but a successful deep pass can make all the difference in big games.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts (deep passing; 2021-2022)
Metric system | Mahomes | rank | pain | rank |
PFF Passing Score | 94.8 | fourth place | 86.1 | No. 18 |
big throw percentage | 32.5% | third place | 26.4% | 16th |
Turnover is worth playing % | 3.6% | 7th | 2.8% | fourth place |
Adjustment.Compensation percentage | 47.8% | number 8 | 38.1% | 28th |
This is another clear advantage for Mahomes, as he has proven to be more accurate deep down the court.
Hurts’ deep pass scoring actually ranks eighth at the position behind No. 7 Mahomes (105.7 to 110.9), but the PFF rating and adjusted completion percentage suggest that number has more to do with his talented It’s about the catcher, not the actual ball placement.
Despite losing Tyreek Hill this year, Mahomes has continued to be productive on the field and has comfortably overcome injuries in three of those categories.
Advantage: Patrick Mahomes
Round 7: VS.blitz
The defenses we’ll see on Sunday are all mid-range in terms of blitz rates. The Chiefs (No. 13) have a slight lead over the Eagles (No. 16) in blitz rate, 26.5 percent to 24.6 percent, but that could be bigger on Sunday.
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